Retirement Planning with Monte Carlo Simulation

Run 1,000 market scenarios to see the full range of your retirement outcomes. Free to use.

Will your savings last?

Find out instantly

How it works: Enter your numbers, see your success rate. Higher % = more likely your money lasts through retirement.
Calculation engine updated. Market paths and cash-flow timing are now reproducible and more consistent. Your saved inputs are unchanged, but results may differ from an earlier visit.
Excellent

92%

success rate

Your plan looks very solid!

In 92% of 1,000 simulated futures, your money lasts through retirement.

Avg Expected Yearly Income

$78,248

Portfolio Balance

Worst Case
Expected
Likely Range

Live one of these futures

The bands above are 1,000 possible lives. Step through one of them year by year — markets crash, life happens, you decide.

Play this plan

Compare best to worst case scenarios

ScenarioBalanceIncome/yr
Worst
$217,089$17,284
Poor
$1,166,731$41,752
Expected
$2,507,727$78,248
Good
$4,639,966$134,226
Best
$8,534,068$232,021

Next Steps

Explore your results in detail or export for AI analysis

View Detailed Analysis

A Free FI Calculator That Shows Real Probabilities

Most retirement calculators give you a single number based on average returns. This financial independence calculator runs 1,000 market scenarios to show the full range of outcomes, so you can plan for uncertainty instead of ignoring it.

Used by the FIRE community. Free, no signup required.

Learn About the Methodology